Democratic Representative Chris Pappas has maintained a consistent lead over Republican John E. Sununu in the race to replace retiring Senator Jeanne Shaheen, with recent surveys showing Pappas ahead by margins ranging from five to seven points. An AARP-commissioned New Hampshire Institute of Politics poll taken September 28-29 found Pappas leading 51% to 44% among likely voters, while separate polls from the New York Times/Siena and Rasmussen each showed Pappas ahead by four to five points, a consistent pattern that has put New Hampshire’s open Senate seat on the list of races Republicans are increasingly unlikely to flip.
Why the Seat Is Open
The race exists because Jeanne Shaheen, who has held the seat since 2009 and served as New Hampshire’s governor before that, announced she would not seek reelection, opening one of the few genuinely competitive Senate seats in New England. Her retirement set off a scramble on both sides, with Pappas, a four-term U.S. representative, quickly emerging as the Democratic frontrunner and Sununu, a former U.S. senator and member of New Hampshire’s most prominent political family, entering the race with Donald Trump’s endorsement. The seat carries outsized weight nationally because Republicans currently hold the Senate 53-47, and Democrats need a net gain of four seats to retake the majority, putting pressure on both parties to treat even traditionally lower-profile New England contests like this one as central to the overall battle for control of the chamber.
Pappas’s Case to Voters
Pappas has centered his campaign on affordability, framing himself in social media posts as someone “pushing back against corporate special interests to lower costs for Granite Staters.” His record representing New Hampshire’s 1st Congressional District, a swing district he has held since 2019, gives him a track record of winning over the same split-ticket voters he will need in a statewide race against a well-known Republican opponent.
Sununu’s Uphill Climb
Sununu, who previously served one term in the U.S. Senate before losing reelection in 2008, wrote on social media that “voters are ready for change in New Hampshire, and Republicans are ready to deliver,” betting that midterm dissatisfaction with Washington will outweigh his own prior loss in a statewide race. Political scientists have been skeptical of that path: University of Kentucky professor D. Stephen Voss said Sununu “faces headwinds in this midterm that will make it very difficult for him to pull ahead,” citing broader national trends working against Republican candidates in swing states this cycle.
How the Ratings Have Shifted
Nonpartisan handicappers have consistently placed the race in Democrats’ favor, with the Cook Political Report rating it Lean Democrat and Inside Elections calling it Tilt Democratic as of this year. Polling also found Pappas performing even better against a hypothetical matchup with former senator Scott Brown, leading that scenario 52% to 42%, suggesting Democrats see an even wider cushion against alternative Republican nominees than against Sununu himself. That gap has reinforced the sense among New Hampshire political observers that the GOP’s eventual nominee mattered less than the broader midterm environment, with Sununu’s name recognition and past statewide win in 2002 seen as his best remaining argument for closing the distance before November 3.
The Primary Picture
Both parties settled their nominations at the September 8 primary, with Pappas easily clearing a Democratic field that included Karishma Manz and Jared Sullivan, while Sununu defeated a Republican field that had included former senator Scott Brown. Pappas’s dominant primary performance, which polling had shown at 65% support against single-digit rivals, allowed his campaign to pivot to the general election earlier than Sununu’s side, which spent longer consolidating a fractured Republican base; an earlier UNH poll had shown Sununu leading that primary with 48% to Brown’s 25%, with roughly a quarter of Republican primary voters still undecided at the time.
What’s Next Before November 3
With the general election three weeks away, both campaigns are focused on turnout in the state’s southern tier, where most of New Hampshire’s registered voters live and where split-ticket voting has decided past close statewide races. National Republican groups have so far kept spending in the race relatively modest compared with other battlegrounds, a sign that the party may be triaging resources toward races viewed as more winnable, while Democratic groups are treating New Hampshire as one of several seats needed to offset losses elsewhere and retake the Senate majority.
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