Georgia’s Senate race is shaping up as the most expensive — and most personal — contest of the 2026 midterm cycle. Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff is the only member of his party defending a seat in a state Donald Trump carried in 2024, making him the top Republican target in the country. As the fall campaign takes shape, Ossoff has built a financial and polling advantage that has Republicans nervous, even as Trump has thrown himself personally into the race on behalf of GOP nominee Mike Collins.
How Collins Won the Primary
The Republican side of the race was unsettled for months before a May 19, 2026 primary sent Rep. Mike Collins into a runoff against Derek Dooley, a former college football coach backed by Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp. Trump endorsed Collins two days before the runoff vote, and Collins went on to win by more than 10 points — a result widely read as a proxy victory for Trump over Kemp inside Georgia’s Republican coalition, and a signal of how much sway the president still holds in the state’s primary politics.
A Personal Feud Plays Out in Public
Since securing the nomination, Trump has made the race personal. On Truth Social, he has called Ossoff “pathetic,” a “failed Dumocrat,” and a “communist,” compared him unfavorably to Pee-wee Herman, and pledged to campaign in Georgia himself. Ossoff has returned fire in kind, calling Trump “disgraced” and “humiliated on the world stage,” and accusing him of raising costs for ordinary families “while he and his family rake in billions.” The exchange has turned a competitive Senate race into something closer to a referendum on Trump himself, a dynamic Democrats have leaned into given Ossoff’s stronger favorability numbers.
What the Polling Shows
A Fox News poll conducted June 23-27, 2026, with 1,002 registered voters and a margin of error of about 3 points, found Ossoff leading Collins 56% to 43%. Ossoff’s coalition is anchored by Black voters (87%), voters under 30 (68%), and independents (68%), while Collins holds advantages with white evangelicals (79%), non-college-educated white men (65%), and rural voters (55%). Inflation topped the list of voter concerns at 40%. Pollster Daron Shaw described Ossoff as “sitting in the catbird seat” heading into the fall, while cautioning the race would tighten. A separate AARP poll conducted July 13-16 showed a closer race, with Ossoff ahead by 9 points — still a clear lead, but a signal that Republican investment may already be narrowing the gap.
The Money Race Is Lopsided
Second-quarter fundraising numbers underline the financial mismatch between the two campaigns. Ossoff raised $20 million in the quarter alone, banking $42 million in cash on hand and $81 million total for the cycle so far. His fundraising is built on volume rather than large checks: more than 474,000 individual donations at an average of $42 each, with 90% of contributions at $100 or less. Collins, by contrast, raised $2.1 million in the quarter, with $2.2 million cash on hand from roughly 16,000 donors giving an average of just over $19.
Outside money is working to close that gap. The Senate Leadership Fund, the main super PAC aligned with Senate Republican leadership, has committed $44 million to the Georgia race as part of a broader $342 million early nationwide push — the largest investment the group has ever made in a Georgia race outside of a runoff period, a sign of how central this seat is to the GOP’s path to holding or expanding its Senate majority.
A Quiet Republican Worry
Not every Republican strategist is convinced Trump’s direct involvement helps Collins. Reporting from NOTUS has surfaced private concern within GOP circles that Trump’s personal attacks on Ossoff could backfire, given that Ossoff’s favorability (58%) significantly outpaces Trump’s own standing in the state and even Collins’ (44%). The worry is that a race centered on Trump’s personality, rather than on Collins’ own record and message, plays to Ossoff’s strengths rather than diminishing them — particularly among the independent voters both parties need to win a statewide race in Georgia.
What’s Next
The next several months will test whether money and name-brand popularity can overcome Georgia’s built-in lean toward Republicans in a midterm cycle, and whether the Senate Leadership Fund’s spending can meaningfully close a financial gap that currently favors Ossoff by a factor of roughly twenty to one. Democrats need to flip four seats nationally to retake the Senate majority, and Georgia is widely viewed as one of their most plausible pickups precisely because Ossoff is the incumbent rather than a challenger. How much further Trump inserts himself into the race, and whether that involvement proves to be an asset or a liability for Collins, is likely to be the defining storyline of the general election campaign heading into November.
