Republican Sen. Ashley Moody holds a 50% to 44% lead over Democratic state Sen. Angie Nixon in Florida’s U.S. Senate race, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll released this week, as the state that was once a premier presidential battleground continues its rightward drift in federal contests.
Moody’s Path From Attorney General to Appointed Senator
Moody was appointed to the Senate in 2025 after serving two terms as Florida’s attorney general, filling the vacancy left when Marco Rubio joined the Trump administration. She is now seeking a full term, campaigning on border security, her record prosecuting opioid manufacturers as attorney general, and close alignment with Gov. Ron DeSantis’s agenda on education and public safety.
Nixon’s Long-Shot Challenge
Nixon, a state senator from Jacksonville known for her advocacy on gun violence prevention and affordable housing, entered the race as a significant underdog in a state Republicans have carried in three straight federal election cycles. Her campaign has focused on property insurance costs, a top concern for Florida homeowners following years of rate spikes, along with hurricane recovery funding and reproductive rights.
Florida’s Shift Away From Battleground Status
Florida was decided by less than one point in the 2000 presidential election and remained a top-tier battleground through the 2010s, but Trump carried the state by double digits in both 2020 and 2024, and Republicans have since built a registration advantage that didn’t exist a decade ago. The Moody-Nixon margin, while not insurmountable, reflects that broader structural shift more than any particular weakness in Nixon’s campaign.
Insurance and Affordability as the Local Wildcard
Despite the state’s rightward tilt, property insurance premiums have become a genuine point of political vulnerability for Florida Republicans, with some homeowners reporting premium increases exceeding 50% over the past three years. Nixon’s campaign has tried to make the race a referendum on the state legislature’s insurance reforms, arguing they have protected insurers more than policyholders, a message that has shown modest traction in the Siena poll’s crosstabs among independent voters.
What National Strategists Are Watching
National Democratic groups have largely deprioritized Florida this cycle in favor of pouring resources into tighter races in Georgia, Maine and North Carolina, a decision Nixon’s campaign has publicly criticized as a missed opportunity given the state’s growing Puerto Rican and Haitian-American populations in the Orlando and South Florida media markets. Republican strategists, meanwhile, view Moody’s position as comfortable enough that they too have redirected some late money elsewhere.
Looking Ahead to November 3
Barring a significant shift in the final days, Moody is favored to win a full term, which would extend Republicans’ streak of Senate victories in Florida and further cement the state’s status as reliably red in federal elections. Early voting data from Florida’s Division of Elections shows turnout running close to 2022 midterm levels, suggesting neither party has generated the kind of surge that could meaningfully alter the race’s trajectory before polls close.
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