Montana’s open U.S. Senate race has shaped up as one of the cycle’s more unusual contests, with Republican Kurt Alme holding a lead in a three-candidate field that also includes independent Seth Bodnar and Democrat Alani Bankhead. A NonStop Local/American Pulse poll released October 5 showed Alme at 45%, Bodnar at 26% and Bankhead at 19%, with the remainder undecided. A later PollCheck average, updated October 27 from a broader set of surveys, put Alme near 41% and Bankhead near 16%, with Bodnar’s share obscured in some published averages, underscoring how unsettled the race’s exact shape remains heading into Election Day on November 3.
How a Three-Way Race Emerged
Montana Republicans entered the cycle expecting a conventional two-way contest, but the race scrambled when Bodnar, a former Army officer and University of Montana president, launched an independent bid rather than seeking either party’s nomination. Bodnar has positioned himself as a alternative to both parties’ bases, arguing Montana voters are tired of partisan gridlock, a pitch that has drawn support from some moderate Republicans and independents who might otherwise have backed the GOP nominee.
Alme’s Path to Front-Runner Status
Alme, who served as Montana’s U.S. Attorney from 2017 to 2020 under the first Trump administration and returned to the post as interim U.S. Attorney in March 2025 before resigning to run for Senate, won the Republican nomination by emphasizing his prosecutorial record and support for energy development on Montana’s federal lands, an issue with particular resonance in the state’s oil- and coal-producing regions. Between his two stints as U.S. Attorney, Alme served as Montana’s state budget director under Republican Gov. Greg Gianforte. His campaign has argued that Bodnar’s independent run will ultimately siphon more votes from Bankhead than from Republicans, allowing Alme to win with a plurality even without crossing 50%.
Bodnar’s Case for a Middle Path
Bodnar has built his campaign around infrastructure investment, rural broadband expansion and veterans’ services, drawing on his military background to court voters skeptical of both national parties. His campaign has pointed to his standing in the NonStop Local/American Pulse poll, well ahead of Bankhead, as evidence he is the race’s true second-place contender and the only candidate capable of consolidating anti-Alme sentiment before Election Day.
Bankhead’s Uphill Fight
Bankhead, a rancher and former state legislator, has struggled to gain traction in a state Republicans have carried in every presidential election since 1992, running on a platform centered on agricultural trade policy and the cost of health care in Montana’s rural counties. National Democratic groups have largely declined to invest heavily in the race, a decision Bankhead’s campaign has criticized as premature given polling showing a competitive multi-candidate dynamic. With limited outside spending, her campaign has leaned on local radio and print advertising rather than the statewide television buys Alme’s campaign has been able to afford, a budget gap that strategists in both parties say has made it harder for her to introduce herself to voters outside the counties where she has already held office.
Why a Plurality Win Is in Play
Montana does not require a runoff if no candidate wins a majority, meaning a three-way split could hand Alme the seat with well under 50% of the vote, a scenario that has drawn attention from election analysts watching how ranked preferences might have changed the outcome. Political scientists note that Montana’s demographic lean, combined with the vote-splitting dynamic, makes Alme the clear favorite barring a late consolidation behind either Bodnar or Bankhead. The seat opened in dramatic fashion when Sen. Steve Daines announced on March 4, minutes before the candidate filing deadline, that he would not seek reelection, immediately endorsing Alme, the U.S. Attorney for Montana, who filed for the race moments later. Bodnar had already launched his independent campaign before Daines’s withdrawal, meaning the three-way dynamic was in place before Republicans even settled on their nominee, a sequence of events that left national GOP strategists with little time to prepare for a race they had expected to be a conventional two-way contest.
What’s Next
With the University of Virginia Center for Politics and other forecasters treating the seat as leaning Republican, the final ten days are likely to center on whether Bodnar can convince undecided voters he is the only candidate who can deny Alme a win, a message complicated by his campaign’s limited television spending compared with the two party nominees. Montana’s results, once certified, will be closely studied as a test case for how independent candidacies reshape Senate math in sparsely populated, heavily Republican states.
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